A new numerical approach to the hyperstatic reaction method for segmental tunnel linings     

Ngoc Anh Do  Daniel Dias  Pierpaolo Oreste  Irini Djeran‐Maigre 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2014,38(15):1617-1632

This paper proposes a numerical approach to the hyperstatic reaction method (HRM) for the analysis of segmental tunnel linings. The influence of segmental joints has been considered directly using a fixity ratio that is determined on the basis of the rotational stiffness. The parameters necessary for the calculation are presented. A specific implementation has been developed using a FEM framework. This code is able to consider the three‐dimensional (3D) effect of segment joints in successive rings on the tunnel lining behaviour. The present HRM allows one to take an arbitrary distribution of segment joints along the tunnel boundary into consideration. In addition, the rotational stiffness of segment joints has been simulated using nonlinear behaviour, as it is closer to the true behaviour of a joint than linear or bilinear behaviour. The numerical results of three hypotheses on ring interaction, which allow the 3D effect of a segmental tunnel lining to be taken into account, have been compared with data obtained from the shield‐driven tunnel of the Bologna–Florence high‐speed railway line project. The numerical results presented in the paper show that the proposed HRM can be used to effectively estimate the behaviour of a segmental tunnel lining. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Analysis of uncertainties in the hydrological response of a model‐based climate change impact assessment in a subcatchment of the Spree River,Germany          下载免费PDF全文

Anne Gädeke  Herwig Hölzel  Hagen Koch  Ina Pohle  Uwe Grünewald 《水文研究》2014,28(12):3978-3998

Climate change impact assessments form the basis for the development of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. For this purpose, ensembles consisting of stepwise coupled models are generally used [emission scenario → global circulation model → downscaling approach (DA) → bias correction → impact model (hydrological model)], in which every item is affected by considerable uncertainty. The aim of the current study is (1) to analyse the uncertainty related to the choice of the DA as well as the hydrological model and its parameterization and (2) to evaluate the vulnerability of the studied catchment, a subcatchment of the highly anthropogenically impacted Spree River catchment, to hydrological change. Four different DAs are used to drive four different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (Water Balance Simulation Model developed at ETH Zürich and HBV‐light). In total, 452 simulations are carried out. The results show that all simulations compute an increase in air temperature and potential evapotranspiration. For precipitation, runoff and actual evapotranspiration, opposing trends are computed depending on the DA used to drive the hydrological models. Overall, the largest source of uncertainty can be attributed to the choice of the DA, especially regarding whether it is statistical or dynamical. The choice of the hydrological model and its parameterization is of less importance when long‐term mean annual changes are compared. The large bandwidth at the end of the modelling chain may exacerbate the formulation of suitable climate change adaption strategies on the regional scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Landform‐oriented flow‐routing algorithm for the dual‐structure loess terrain based on digital elevation models          下载免费PDF全文

Liyang Xiong  Guoan Tang  Shijiang Yan  Shijie Zhu  Yiying Sun 《水文研究》2014,28(4):1756-1766

The loess landform in the Loess Plateau of China is with typical dual structure, namely, the upper smooth positive terrain and the lower cliffy negative terrain (P–N terrain for short). Obvious differences in their morphological feature, geomorphological mechanism, and hydrological process could be found in the both areas. Based on the differences, a flow‐routing algorithm that separately addresses the dual‐structure terrain would be necessary to encompass this spatial variation in their hydrological behaviour. This paper proposes a mixed flow‐routing algorithm to address aforementioned problems. First, the loess landform surface is divided into P–N terrains based on digital elevation models. Then, specific catchment area is calculated with the new algorithm to simulate the water flows in both positive and negative terrain areas. The mixed algorithm consists of the multiple flow‐routing algorithm (multiple‐flow direction) for positive areas and the D8 algorithm for negative areas, respectively. The approach is validated in two typical geomorphologic areas with low hills and dense gullies in the northern Shaanxi Loess Plateau. Four indices are used to examine the results, which show that the new algorithm is more suitable for loess terrain in simulating the spatial distribution of water accumulation, as well as in modeling the flow characteristics of the true surface by considering the morphological structures of the terrain. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

我国干热岩资源分布及勘探:进展与启示   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

蔺文静  王贵玲  邵景力  甘浩男  谭现锋 《地质学报》2021,95(5):1366-1381

干热岩是地热资源的重要赋存形式之一,是未来地热开发的主攻方向.我国干热岩勘查工作近年来进展迅速,先后在不同地区发现了优质的干热岩资源,取得了我国干热岩资源勘查突破,但同时也存在不少勘查失败的案例.本文在分析高放射性产热型、沉积盆地型、近代火山型和强烈构造活动带型等四种类型干热岩成因模式的基础上,结合我国的地质构造背景、地热地质条件,对未来我国干热岩资源重点勘查方向及靶区进行了论述,并重点针对目前不同类型区干热岩资源勘探工程进行了梳理,简要分析了不同勘探区的选址依据、勘探过程、地温场分布及特征、前景预测等,并初步进行了经验总结,希望对我国未来干热岩资源勘查及开发工作起到借鉴作用.  相似文献   

基于全球及区域气候模式的江苏省降水变化趋势预估          下载免费PDF全文

李熠  买苗 《大气科学学报》2019,42(3):447-458

利用气象观测资料,8个全球耦合气候系统模式的集合平均以及区域气候模式(RegCM4)的结果,通过方差分析、相关分析、趋势分析、扰动法等方法对模式性能进行了评估,并对江苏省在未来RCP8.5高端排放情景下降水的变化趋势进行了预估。结果表明,在RCP8.5情景下,至2020、2030和2050年,全球模式模拟的江苏省年平均降水在未来有逐渐增加的趋势,线性增加率约为7 mm/(10 a)。至2050年,江苏省年平均降水量将增加2%左右;区域模式模拟的年平均降水在未来线性增加率为1.5 mm/(10 a),变化不显著。区域模式模拟的夏季降水在未来有所增加,最多可增加20%～30%,但增幅随时间逐渐减小;全球模式模拟的夏季降水比现在有所减少,至2050年,减少了大约10%。区域模式模拟的冬季降水在未来不同时间段均比现在有所减少,同现在相比,最多可减少30%～40%;而全球模式模拟的冬季降水在未来则是先减少,后增加,至2050年,比现在大约增加10%。对于不同季节,总体而言,南部地区降水量的变化较北部地区显著。对于极端降水事件来说,江苏省未来小雨日数将减少,而暴雨日数则微弱增加。但由于全球模式本身的性能、区域模式对全球模式的依赖性以及温室气体排放的不确定性使上述预估结果仍具有不确定性。  相似文献   

Quantifying the variability and allocation patterns of aboveground carbon stocks across plantation forest types,structural attributes and age in sub-tropical coastal region of KwaZulu Natal,South Africa using remote sensing     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2015

Quantifying the variability and allocation patterns of aboveground carbon stocks across plantation forests is central in deriving accurate and reliable knowledge and understanding of the extent to which these species contribute to the global carbon cycle and towards minimizing climate change effects. The principal objective of this study was to quantify the variability and allocation patterns of aboveground carbon stocks across Pinus and Eucalyptus plantation forests, tree-structural attributes (i.e. stems, barks, branches and leaves) and age groups, using models developed based on remotely sensed data. The results of this study demonstrate that aboveground carbon stocks significantly (α = 0.05) vary across different plantation forest species types, structural attributes and age. Pinus taeda and Eucalyptus grandis species contained aboveground carbon stocks above 110 t C ha⁻¹, and Eucalyptus dunii had 20 t C ha⁻¹. Across plantation forest tree structural attributes, stems contained the highest aboveground carbon stocks, when compared to barks, branches and leaves. Aboveground carbon stock estimates also varied significantly (α = 0.05) with stand age. Mature plantation forest species (i.e. between 7 and 20 years) contained the highest aboveground carbon stock estimates of approximately 120 t C ha⁻¹, when compared to younger species (i.e. between 3 and 6 years), which had approximately 20 t C ha⁻¹. The map of aboveground carbon stocks showed distinct spatial patterns across the entire study area. The findings of this study are important for understanding the contribution of different plantation forest species, structural attributes and age in the global carbon cycle and possible climate change moderation measures. Also, this study demonstrates that data on vital tree structural attributes, previously difficult to obtain, can now be easily derived from cheap and readily-available satellite data for inventorying carbon stocks variability.  相似文献   

National indicators for observing ecosystem service change     

《Global Environmental Change》2015

Earth’s life-support systems are in rapid decline, yet we have few metrics or indicators with which to track these changes. The world’s governments are calling for biodiversity and ecosystem-service monitoring to guide and evaluate international conservation policy as well as to incorporate natural capital into their national accounts. The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) has been tasked with setting up this monitoring system. Here we explore the immediate feasibility of creating a global ecosystem-service monitoring platform under the GEO BON framework through combining data from national statistics, global vegetation models, and production function models. We found that nine ecosystem services could be annually reported at a national scale in the short term: carbon sequestration, water supply for hydropower, and non-fisheries marine products, crop, livestock, game meat, fisheries, mariculture, and timber production. Reported changes in service delivery over time reflected ecological shocks (e.g., droughts and disease outbreaks), highlighting the immediate utility of this monitoring system. Our work also identified three opportunities for creating a more comprehensive monitoring system. First, investing in input data for ecological process models (e.g., global land-use maps) would allow many more regulating services to be monitored. Currently, only 1 of 9 services that can be reported is a regulating service. Second, household surveys and censuses could help evaluate how nature affects people and provides non-monetary benefits. Finally, to forecast the sustainability of service delivery, research efforts could focus on calculating the total remaining biophysical stocks of provisioning services. Regardless, we demonstrated that a preliminary ecosystem-service monitoring platform is immediately feasible. With sufficient international investment, the platform could evolve further into a much-needed system to track changes in our planet's life-support systems.  相似文献   

Legacies of 19th century land use shape contemporary forest cover     

《Global Environmental Change》2015

Historic land use can exert strong land-use legacies, i.e., long-lasting effects on ecosystems, but the importance of land-use legacies, alongside other factors, for subsequent forest-cover change is unclear. If past land use affects rates of forest disturbance and afforestation then this may constrain land use planning and land management options, and legacies of current land management may constrain future land use. Our goal was to assess if and how much land-use legacies affect contemporary forest disturbance, and the abundance of different forest types in the Carpathian region in Eastern Europe (265,000 km², encompassing parts of Poland, Slovakia, Ukraine, Romania, Hungary, and Czech Republic). We modeled contemporary forest disturbance (based on satellite image analysis from 1985 to 2010) as a function of historic land use (based on digitized topographic maps from 1860 and 1960). Contemporary forest disturbance was strongly related to historic land use even when controlling for environmental, accessibility and socio-political variation. Across the Carpathian region, the odds of forest disturbance were about 50% higher in areas that were not forested in 1860 (new forests) compared to areas that were forested then (old forests). The forest disturbance in new forests was particularly high in Poland (88% higher odds), Slovakia (69%) and Romania (67%) and persisted across the entire range of environmental, accessibility and socio-political variation. Reasons for the observed legacy effects may include extensive plantations outside forest ranges, predominantly spruce, poplar, and black locust, which are prone to natural disturbances. Furthermore, as plantations reach harvestable age of about 70 years for pulp and 120 year for saw-timber production, these are likely to be clear-cut, producing the observed legacy effects. Across the Carpathians, forest types shifted towards less coniferous cover in 2010 compared to the 1860s and 1960s likely due to extensive historic conifer harvest, and to recent natural disturbance events and clear-cuts of forest plantations. Our results underscore the importance of land-use legacies, and show that past land uses can greatly affect subsequent forest disturbance for centuries. Given rapid land use changes worldwide, it is important to understand how past legacies affect current management and what the impact of current land management decisions may be for future land use.  相似文献   

Potential impact of future climate change on crop yield in northeastern China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mengzi Zhou  Huijun Wang 《大气科学进展》2015,32(7):889-897

We evaluated the potential impact of future climate change on spring maize and single-crop rice in northeastern China(NEC) by employing climate and crop models. Based on historical data, diurnal temperature change exhibited a distinct negative relationship with maize yield, whereas minimum temperature correlated positively to rice yield. Corresponding to the evaluated climate change derived from coupled climate models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario(RCP4.5), the projected maize yield changes for three future periods [2010–39(period 1), 2040–69(period 2), and 2070–99(period 3)] relative to the mean yield in the baseline period(1976–2005) were 2.92%, 3.11% and 2.63%, respectively. By contrast, the evaluated rice yields showed slightly larger increases of 7.19%, 12.39%, and 14.83%, respectively. The uncertainties in the crop response are discussed by considering the uncertainties obtained from both the climate and the crop models. The range of impact of the uncertainty became markedly wider when integrating these two sources of uncertainty. The probabilistic assessments of the evaluated change showed maize yield to be relatively stable from period 1 to period 3, while the rice yield showed an increasing trend over time. The results presented in this paper suggest a tendency of the yields of maize and rice in NEC to increase(but with great uncertainty) against the background of global warming, which may offer some valuable guidance to government policymakers.  相似文献   

GNSS基本服务性能评估     

贾小林  陶清瑞  王利军  王海春  张亮 《测绘科学》2021,46(1):62-75

针对现有全球卫星导航系统性能评估无规范的评估标准问题,该文提出了以统一模型和算法为评估体系的方法,较详细的评估了全球卫星导航系统公开服务信号的基本性能,主要评估了空间信号误差、广播电离层模型改正效率及伪距单点定位精度等。结果表明:空间信号误差方面,伽利略最优、GPS和北斗三号相当;广播电离层模型方面,北斗全球广播电离层模型改正效果最优,GPSK8与NeQuick模型在低中纬度改正效果相当,北斗区域电离层模型在其服务区内具有较高改正效果;定位方面,北斗、GPS和伽利略静态伪距单点定位的三维位置均方根误差优于5m,格洛纳斯优于10 m;动态伪距单点定位方面,北斗在中国境内定位精度最高;基于统一评估体系下,可以直观对比得到目前各卫星导航系统的性能差异,同时也为后续的建设提供相应的参考。  相似文献